Does SUSA say anything about them wearing Birckenstocks, sipping lattes.  If there's one thing we know it's that Obama doesn't connect with working class whites.  Now we just need a handy-dandy way to dismiss these working class white voters like the others we've ignored.

Don't be so Certain:

"African-Americans have been the Democratic Party's most reliable bloc, giving about 90 percent of their votes to former Vice President Al Gore and Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., in the last two presidential elections.

In a close election this year, an African-American exodus from the voting booth could be costly to Democrats, particularly in the South, where blacks are a large proportion of the electorate.

If Obama isn't the nominee, "there would be a significant number of African-Americans who would stay home. They're not voting for (presumptive Republican nominee) John McCain," predicted David Bositis, a senior analyst at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, which researches black voting trends."

It will be this year if Clinton is the nominee.

Just a guess, you're not black are you?

"Also, the reason no one asks about Hillary and the black vote is because of course most blacks are gonna vote for their own, when they think he can make the white house."

Do you perhaps see the double standard? What if I said,"of course most whites are gonna vote for their own." That would be considered racist.

Don't be so sure about the AA's voting for Clinton should she be the nominee. The rift between them is real, wide and long. And for the record, being black is NOT an ethnicity.

If it is assumes and accepted that blacks will "vote for their own", why isn't the same thing assumed and accepted about women?

if you remove women from the "white working class" equation, and make the discussion just "white working class men", then it becomes much closer in most states that have voted.

In fact, I propose that white working class men be the only demographic polled the rest of this cycle.  I think we have conclusively proven that they are the only demographic that matters.

(oh, and OR has a primary, not a caucus)

So by that logic, women also "vote for their own."  Gender pride.  Right.  And all whites vote for whites because of racial pride.  Maybe black people vote for Obama because they think he will do more for them?  Think of that?

Whites don't vote for their own?

McCaveman might not get the African-American vote but Clinton would probably not either. A Rassmussen poll had her at about 55% with AA's against McCain in a hypothetical GE matchup. That's about 30% less than it should be.

What murmurings are those? I'd be really disappointed if Clinton were to win and the black vote would sit on their hands because their preferred candidate didn't win.

and how is she doing with the AA community?

BREAKINGER:

Clinton wins the white women's vote in almost every state!

Breaking:  Polls are still unreliable...

There are only 29 states now?

What about the other 21 states?

Thats right, the geographic area where Obama does best amongst working class whites, the Upper Midwest/Great Plains/Mountain West, didn't have exit polls.

Obama got almost 80% of the vote in Idaho, do you really think he lost the, apparently all important, "working class whites" vote?

Or is everybody in Idaho a dirty fucking hippie?

Obama does better in the west.  Just does.  Yes, he's lost some traction, but I predict he'll get it back when he's actively campaigning in those states.  There is something about seeing him, hearing him and being a part of one of those "rock star" like events that gets people in his camp-- and I'm a Hillary supporter.  However, if Obama is the nominee I will gladly support him with my (few) dollars and time.  A win is a win-- as Hillary's camp has said.  Then you have to apply the same principle to Obama's wins.

Start toning down your negative rhetoric folks, unless you want McSame.  As the supers move to Obama, barring some other Wright-like skeleton, Obama is looking more and more to be the nominee.  

It would be tragic if our disparaging remarks against one of our own was used against him/her in Oct/Nov.  Thou Shall Not Disparage a fellow Dem!

I can't imagine why uneducated white people won't vote for an educated black man for President.  

Sorry, but history hasn't stopped.  Hillary connects with many uneducated whites - especially women - on policy issues. But racism is still rampant, especially among uneducated whites.  As for well-educated white racists there is another name: Republican.

I live in non-Portalnd Oregon.  I was surprised to hear the HC was fairly close in the Portland area, but it's good news.

I think one thing that people may not understand about the rest of Oregon, is that most of it, outside the college towns (Corvallis, Ashland, Eugene, and a few coastal "arts" communities), is really RED.  It would be pretty hard in rural and small town Oregon to even find a white working class Democrat.  The Democrats in the rest of the state are mostly "elites", many transplanted from California, because Oregon hasn't completely destroyed itself with over-development like CA.  They move here for a quality-of-life thing (I know we did), and tend to cluster in a few liberal enclaves.

But it is a really Republican state outside those blue clusters and Portland.  That's why it used to be very swingy -- but I don't think it is so much now because of population increases in the bluer zones.  It will be blue come Nov. regardless of who is the candidate.

If that divide happens, I hope the DLC is on the losing side.

You are on the money.  The Dems take the AA vote for granted (I'm a white female, Hillary supporter). It will cost them this time if the supers play a game. I have heard that in order to stress the damage that could be inflicted, the AA community is ready to change their party affiliation from Dem to independent if the supers play games and hand this over to Clinton.  Can you imagine the apoplexy in the Dem party if this happens?  I think it's brilliant strategy-- independents can still vote--why would they choose McSame?   But they'd cause such heartburn in the party.  It would probably clean out the top of the party of the old timers and the AA would gain a lot of concessions. I am sure that is why you see a lot of supers deciding to go with Obama.  The party can't afford a split.  And to you nay sayers--ANY Dem candidate can beat McSame.

The black community is 'hurt' with the treatment they are receiving from the media? Are you kidding me? The entire nomination has been about Obama -- a black man -- and Clinton -- a white woman.

Again, there's not really that much of an issue with the black vote in the general not because of racism but simply because the black vote has been one of the most durable constituencies in the Democratic party. White working class voters have always been tough for the Democratic party, and is usually the winning margin in general elections, not the black vote. This is why white voters are quoted more, not because of any racism.

the logic of your comment is based on nonsense.  with regard to the double-standard - are you kidding?  up until the wright thing, HRC has consistently been held to a different and obtuse standard than all other presidential candidates on both sides of the aisle.  and with regard to a lack of respect, people (and by people i mean you) are certainly entitled to 'feel' any way they want - but that does not make it a reality.

yes - AA communities are fired up - as they should be - this is the first AA candidate with a viable chance at the nomination.  but what you and EVERYONE needs to understand (instead of stoking the racial flames) is that BOTH candidates will need the supers to cinch the nomination.

It's because there are far more white voters than AA voters.  That's all.  AAs have been a very significant part of the Democratic coalition, and I hate to see the divisions opening up.  I can't wait till this primary is over because it is very painful.  I've waited my whole freakin' life for a non-male, non-white president, and now that we finally have some viable candidates who are not white males, they're beating the shit out of each other and people are getting angry.

Um, you do realize that JFK's election flipped the Democratic party to a northern electoral map, right?   Southern whites haven't supported Democrats in large numbers since the 1960s.

Maybe you shouldn't be so suck in the 50's and 60's...and understand the significance of THIS race.

There is a limit to how much even loyal Democrats will take.  Many of us are very close to that limit.

I'm not so sure:
Will black voters stay home if Obama loses nomination?
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/227/story/355 16.html

http://www.colorofchange.org/dems/

Will Clinton? Or are you going to you the highly suspect argument that b/c she won the Dem primary there that she will win the general?

And does anyone actually doubt that any Dem would lose NJ or Mass the way some people around here are suggesting if OBama is the nominee? No way.